An assessment of the economic effects of drought in the Hirmand basin in the east of Iran: The application of the decision support system (DSS) approach

The issue of water resource management has become extremely complicated due to the droughts of the last two decades and the competition among the drinking sector, agricultural sector, and international Hamoun wetland to use water. To analyze the status and help managers in policy analysis and decision-making, this research adopted an integrated water resource model (WEAP) with a decision support system (DSS) approach to study the effect of drought on rural and agricultural development and its economic impacts in the region. So, the Iranian government’s water development projects were simulated within ۱۱ scenarios for a medium-term period (up to the ۲۰۳۰ horizon) and the implications of their implementation for the development of the rural and agricultural sectors were assessed. According to the results, if Afghanistan observes Iran’s water rights, there will still be a great amount of unmet water demand (۳۱۴.۵۳ million m۳) for the agricultural and wetland sectors. However, if this scenario is realized, the unmet demand will decrease by about ۱۹۶ million m۳ versus the status quo and the agricultural sector’s profit will increase by about ۳۱۴ billion IRR, which will be very helpful for rural development. So, relevant officials should put their best effort into realizing the water right. It is suggested to strengthen water diplomacy between the two main stakeholders in the region in order to reduce the persistence of drought.

Keywords:

Decision Support System (DSS) , Drought , Economic Modeling , Hirmand Basin , Sistan Development , WEAP Model