Remittances, Exchange Rates and Dutch Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study empirically investigated remittances’ short-run and long-run effects on actual exchange rates. Further, it examined the impact of remittances on resource movement from the tradable to the nontradable sector in the CFA franc and non-CFA zones of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A panel-based, Pooled Mean Group estimation technique was adopted to estimate the data collected from ۱۹۸۱ to ۲۰۱۸ for ۲۶ SSA countries which comprise ۱۵ non-CFA and ۱۱ CFA countries. Both aggregate (SSA) and disaggregated (CFA franc and non-CFA) analyses were conducted. The data utilized were collected from the World Bank’s World Development Indicator and International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics database. Evidence from the results indicated that remittances inflow led to real exchange rate appreciation in the CFA zone. However, the effect of remittances on the real exchange rate in the non-CFA zone is not statistically significant. Moreover, while remittances caused a shift of resources from tradable to nontradable sector in the CFA zone, in the long run, there is no substantial evidence that remittances would lead to resource movement from tradable to nontradable sector in the non-CFA zone. Thus, in the CFA zone, effective policies need to be implemented to channel remittances towards investment in agriculture and industry (tradable sector) to reduce the negative impact of remittances in the industry.

Keywords:

Remittances , Dutch Disease , CFA , Non-CFA , Pooled Mean Group