Assessing the Iranian Fiscal Sustainability in Past and Future through Tax Side of the Economy
Publish place: Iranian Economic Review Journal، Vol: 20، Issue: 2
Publish Year: 1395
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: English
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_IER-20-2_005
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 21 مهر 1402
Abstract:
This paper, I have focused on the tax side of the fiscal policy to investigate the past and future behavior of fiscal sustainability in Iran. To do so, I have employed two different forward-looking and backward-looking approaches. First, the backward-looking approach is the fiscal policy rule proposed by Daving & Leeper (۲۰۱۱). Precisely, this rule determines that whether the fiscal policy is active (unsustainable) or passive (sustainable). To estimate the fiscal policy rule, I have exploited Markov switching model (MSM) which examines the tax rate response to debt dynamics under multiple regimes. Second, the forward-looking approach is the modified Blanchard’s tax gap indicator (۱۹۹۰) for an oil-producing country. In fact, this indicator predicts the amount of tax adjustment required to stabilize the future amount of government’s debt back to its value in a particular base year. I have used time series data over the period spanning from ۱۹۹۳(Q۱) to ۲۰۱۳(Q۴).
Keywords:
Keywords: Backward-Looking Approach , Forward-Looking Approach , Tax Gap Indicator , Fiscal Policy Rule , Markov Switching Model. JEL Classification: E۶۲ , E۶۳
Authors
Mahsa Fathalizadeh
Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University.
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