Modelling Consumer Price Index in Tanzania: Holt Winter’s Approach

Consumer price index (CPI) is a socioeconomic statistic that tracks changes over time in the average price of consumer goods and services such as household purchases of fuel, transportation, food and so on that consumers buy, use, or pay for. The purchasing power of everyone is impacted by rising costs, especially if salaries stay the same. Our ability to purchase more things with our TZS reduces when the CPI increases more quickly than earnings, which has an impact on our cost of living. The aim of this study is to use the CPI monthly data from IMF website for the period from Jan ۲۰۱۰ to Dec ۲۰۲۲ to develop a forecasting model by using Holt Winter’s approach. Holt Winter's model based on four equations and popularly known as Triple exponential smoothing is commonly used in forecasting data with trends and seasonality. Holt Winter’s model is composed of four equations relating to level, trend, seasonal and forecast. The results revealed that the Holt winter’s model with smoothing parameters, ۰.۹ for level, ۰.۱۲ for trend, and ۰.۰۳ for seasonal was the best model in forecasting Consumer Price Index. The CPI for Tanzania is predicted for the next eighteen months and it has been observed that the trend of CPI is likely to increase in the next eighteen months.

Keywords:

CPI , IMF , Forecasting