An Examination on the Effect of Regional Disintegration on Industry Performance: The Post-Brexit Decision

Ongoing research on the uncertainties surrounding Brexit as a form of regional disintegration is a teeming challenge for many of the industries in the United Kingdom, and as such, various researches are being undergone by experts in different fields to analyse the potential effects both positive and negative on the various industries. This research, therefore, aimed to focus mainly on the effect of regional disintegration on industry performance with emphasis on Brexit.  The research considers the financial services and insurance industry in the United Kingdom as a case study. To consider the potential effect of regional disintegration, the research examined a ۵-year quarterly data trend analysis spanning from ۲۰۱۴ till ۲۰۱۸ which represents two years before and two years after the pronouncement of the referendum in June ۲۰۱۶. The study further adopted a deductive approach while using both quantitative and qualitative research strategies. The data collection method involved the use of secondary data gotten from government reports and statistical bulletins. The variables were grouped into three categories including the macroeconomic factors (inflation, exchange rate and interest rate), trade performance (imports, exports and industry consumer price index), and demand and supply of labour (employment levels). The data analysis was conducted using a t-test statistic to ascertain if there is any significant difference in the population means of the variables. The findings revealed that the macroeconomic factors have more significant adverse effects on the industry's performance, while there are both positive and negative effects of regional integration on trade performance. Lastly, a no-deal outcome is likely to pose a significant threat to the industry’s demand and supply of labour.  In general, the findings of the research allude to the fact that regional disintegration has both positive and negative effects on industry performance. Some recommendations were provided based on a no-deal or deal outcome.

Keywords:

Regional disintegration , Brexit , financial services and insurance industry , United Kingdom , referendum , Macroeconomic Factors , trade performance , demand and supply of labour