Estimation of Road Traffic Mortality in Kurdistan Province, Iran, During 2004-2009, Using Capture-Recapture Method abstract
Background: To reduce traffic injuries in the country, health professionals should have accurate estimates of road traffic deaths. Multiple and sometimes inconsistent statistics presented by organizations in charge create high degree of uncertainty for planners and decision makers. To achieve an accurate estimate, several methods are available. Of them, capture-recapture
method seems to be an appropriate and affordable method regarding the reliability of the data sources. This study aimed to estimate the number of road traffic deaths in Kurdistan Province during 2004-2009, using capture-recapture method and based on 2 sources of data obtained from Death Registration System and Forensic Medicine Department.
Materials and Methods: All deaths due to road traffic accidents in Kurdistan Province were extracted during 2004-2009. These deaths were legally registered in Death Registration System and Forensic Medicine Department. Shared cases among these 2 sources were identified based on full name, age, gender, and date of death and finally the accurate number of deaths was
calculated using the correct volume formula.
Results: During study period, Forensic Medicine Department of the province had registered about 3289 cases of road traffic mortalities and Death Registration System had registered 3771 cases of death resulting from road traffic accidents. Using capture-recapture method, the number of deaths in the same years was estimated as 5726 people (5818-5634:CI95%). The
proportion of mortality registered in the Death Registration System and Forensic Medicine Department of the province to the total estimated deaths were 65.8% and 57.4%, respectively and both systems together covered 85.4% of road traffic deaths, i.e. under-reporting of about 832 people.
Conclusion: The results of the present study indicate that none of 2 sources of Forensic Medicine Department and Death Registration System, per se or both, fully covered road traffic mortalities and using capture-recapture method can help estimate the actual number of deaths.