Dynamics of Tobacco Use, Scenarios, and Control Policies

Background: A review of the tobacco control initiatives indicates that the evolution oftobacco control and public health into complex interconnected systems requires approachesand methodologies based on the dynamic nature of this environment. This study attempts toview tobacco control policies from the perspective of systemic dynamics.Materials and Methods: The research methodology is based on the stages of systemdynamics.Results: Through the model’s analysis, two primary smoking control policies are proposed:First, a strategy focused on reducing consumption through enhanced awareness and ongoingmonitoring via an active learning program, and second, enhancing the smoking cessation rateby establishing dedicated clinics and utilizing cultural approaches that condemn smoking.Conclusion: Using either a system dynamics approach or qualitative and descriptive methods,tobacco studies reveal no quantitative decision support system to measure the effectivenessof the policies guiding the development of this system. This gap inhibits the identification ofthe root cause of the problem and improves the behavior of essential variables with dynamichypotheses. A fundamental issue in the development of any model is access to valuable andaccurate data, a resource not readily and transparently available in Iran.

Keywords:

Systems dynamics , Control policies , Tobacco