International incidences, macroeconomic variables and their volatility effect on economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan

The prime objective of this study is to incorporate the volatility among the different macroeconomic variables. In order, to analysis the volatility among different variables we have employed the ARCH/GARCH model. Our results suggested that there is not significant relationship between IMF, FDI and GDP. while, import, export and market capitalization have negative relationship. GRCH model reported that in the case of gold there is persistence of volatility exists. Morever, inflation and exchange rate are found insignificant volatility. Our study is also trying to show that Iraq war have significant volatility while other global crisis have negative volatility.The prime objective of this study is to incorporate the volatility among the different macroeconomic variables. In order, to analysis the volatility among different variables we have employed the ARCH/GARCH model. Our results suggested that there is not significant relationship between IMF, FDI and GDP. while, import, export and market capitalization have negative relationship. GRCH model reported that in the case of gold there is persistence of volatility exists. Morever, inflation and exchange rate are found insignificant volatility. Our study is also trying to show that Iraq war have significant volatility while other global crisis have negative volatility.

Keywords:

ARCH , GARCH , Marcoeconomic variables , IMF , GDP , Volatility