Dynamic modeling for improving investment in the agricultural sector of the country

Investment in the agricultural sector has a crucial role in the economic growth of the country. The variability of investment expenses on the one hand, and the extent and potential capacities of the agricultural sector on the other hand, increases the necessity of investigating the factors affecting the improvement of investment in this sector. Developing a dynamic model is an appropriate approach for analyzing complex feedback systems to improve investment in the agricultural sector of the country. In the present study, library research and interviews with experts were used to identify the factors affecting the improvement of investment in the agricultural sector in the country to develop a dynamic model. The participants of the present study include ۲۰ experts in the natural resources management organization of the country and several university expert professors in the field of agriculture finance were interviewed. Based on the opinion of experts the key variables were identified and cause-and-effect and mathematical relationships between these variables were evaluated in the form of two diagrams of cause and effect and the flow state diagram in the dynamics system approach during the years ۲۰۱۱ to ۲۰۲۵ were simulated in the Vensim software. Then different scenarios were examined aimed to increase and improve the investment in the agricultural sector of the country. The findings show that by implementing policies to improve investment in the agricultural sector through increasing exports and implementing land protection laws and regulations, investment in the agricultural sector of the country can be improved.

Keywords:

investment , Agriculture , dynamic model