Evaluating the impact of climate change on runoff (case study: Ghezel Ozan River basin)

Over the last century climate change has affected the hydrological cycle largely, thus prediction of the hydrological regime using changes in precipitation and temperature parameters have done in many parts of the world. Due to the importance of water and also the limitations in water resources, it is necessary to study the effects of climate change on hydrological parameters for the planning and management of water resources. In this study, in order to investigate the impacts of climate change, rainfall, temperature and runoff parameters of Ghezel Ozan river basin located in Kurdistan province have been evaluated. In this study, HADGEM۲-ES model under emission scenario (RCP۴.۵) and LARS-WG microscale model to investigate future precipitation and temperature and IHACRES rainfall-runoff model to simulate runoff for the future ۲۰ years period (۲۰۲۱-۲۰۴۰) have been used. The results of runoff simulation show a decrease of ۳.۸۸ m۳/s in the average flow of Ghezel Ozan River for the next ۲۰ years under the scenario of RCP۴.۵, compared to the base period. In addition, due to the results, it can be concluded that both LARS-WG and IHACRES models have acceptable performance in terms of accuracy to predict future data affected by climate change.

Keywords:

Climate Change , Runoff , RCPs , IHACRES , LARS-WG