Presenting the optimal monetary policy effect model on inflation and exchange rate control

In recent years, due to the existence of severe sanctions and obstacles governing the sale of oil, it has led to an increase in the exchange rate, and on the other hand, the decrease in foreign exchange resources has led to a decrease in the government's income, and the limitation of the income due to the financial policies of the government has made it difficult to meet the expenses of the government does not give and as a result, the budget deficit has caused many problems in the economic system of the government. The government's budget deficit leads to borrowing from the central bank or banks, and ultimately to the growth of the monetary-liquidity base, inflation and a decrease in the value of the national currency against foreign currencies. In this article, the effects of optimal monetary policy on these variables are investigated and the existing research gap is closed. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to investigate the effect of optimal monetary policy on controlling inflation and exchange rate. The current research method is practical. The period of the current research was ۱۳۵۷ to ۱۳۹۸. To estimate the model, the self-regression econometric model with distributed interruptions or ARDL was used in Microfit ۵ software space. With the increase in money supply and the lack of proportional and symmetrical increase in the production of goods, the tendency to import goods increases, and in this case, pressure is put on the current price of the exchange rate and the causes of its increase are provided. Optimal monetary policies have a positive and significant effect on controlling inflation and exchange rate. Optimal monetary policies have a positive and significant effect on controlling the exchange rate. As a result, according to the results of the model, the liquidity situation and income inequality have worsened during the period under review, and as a result, the monetary policy in the country was not effective.

Keywords:

Optimal Monetary Policy , Liquidity , Inequality of income distribution , ARDL