Forecasting the gasoline consumption in Iran’s transportation sector by ARIMA method

Transportation is one of the important bases of the national economy of any country. The development of the transportation sector has been accompanied by economic growth. In developing countries, the development of the transportation sector and the increasing number of vehicles increase energy consumption in this sector. Therefore, the management and energy supply of this sector are two of the main priorities of the governments in these countries. In this research, taking into account the data related to the gross domestic product, the number of gasoline cars produced, the number of passengers within and outside the province, and the price of gasoline, a regression equation was written using the least squares method to determine the effect of these components on consumption. Gasoline should be evaluated. Furthermore, with Iran's gasoline consumption data from ۱۹۶۲ to ۲۰۲۱, we have forecast the gasoline consumption between ۲۰۲۲ and ۲۰۳۱ with the ARIMA method. The research results show that between ۲۰۲۱ and ۲۰۲۲, Iran's gasoline consumption had a downward trend; its amount was -۰.۴۵%; and it had an upward trend from ۲۰۲۳ to ۲۰۳۱; it grew by ۵۲.۰۹% between these years.

Keywords:

transportation , Regression , least squares method , Gasoline Consumption , ARIMA