Prognostic value of intensive care scores concerning the prediction of ۳۰-day mortality in COVID-۱۹

Objective: The goal of our study was to determine the prognostic value of CURB-۶۵,Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), pneumonia severity index (PSI), MuLBSTA,and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II upon admission inpatients with coronavirus disease ۲۰۱۹ (COVID-۱۹, as well as the prediction cut-off valuefor death regarding these parameters.Methods: This observational retrospective study was performed in COVID-۱۹ triagein Peymaniyeh hospital in Jahrom in ۲۰۲۱. In order to calculate SOFA, APACHE II, PSI,MuLBSTA, and CURB-۶۵, data were collected from patients who were selected by availablesampling method from PCR-confirmed COVID-۱۹ patients. Thirty-day mortality wasassessed as the primary outcome. ROC analysis was conducted using the STATA software toevaluate the prognostic value of the scoring systems. DeLong test was utilized to compareAUC of scores using a web based tool.Results:Ninety-two patients were included in this study with the mean age of ۵۱.۰۲±۱۷.۸۱years (male to female ratio was ۱:۱). SOFA had an AUC of ۰.۶۵۶ (P=۰.۱۳۰), but other indiceshad statistically significant values of AUC. Based on the comparison of the AUCs, SOFAwas the worst scoring system in COVID-۱۹ as it had significantly lower AUC than PSI andAPACHE II (P<۰.۰۵); while its comparison with MULBSTA and CURB۶۵ was not statisticallysignificant (P>۰.۰۵).Conclusion: It seems that APACHE II and PSI are the best prognostic factors in our studywith no statistical difference compared together (P>۰.۰۵). The sensitivity of APACHE II andPSI was ۰.۸۵۷ with the specificity of ۰.۹۲۷ and ۰.۹۷۶, respectively. The optimal cut-off pointwas ۱۳ and ۵۰ for APACHE II and PSI, respectively

Keywords:

COVID-۱۹ , SARS-CoV-۲ , mortality , APACHE II