Probabilistic Shakedown Analysis for Heterogeneous Road Pavements

Shakedown theory is used for analysis of flexible road pavements. The pavementshakedown solution has received considerable research attention during past decades,wherein the pavement materials’ spatial variability is commonly ignored. While, thegeological profiles exhibit some uncertainties due to the inherent variability of soilproperties. This article proposes a step-by-step probabilistic shakedown solution, byconsidering uncertainty in soil parameters. Finally, the results are presented at the end ofarticle. Compared to the deterministic solution, the probabilistic analyses results indicatedthat smaller load factors may be attained, depending on the intensity of in situ soilvariability.

Keywords:

pavement , shakedown analysis , probabilistic analysis , soil uncertainty.