Background In Sudan, where studies on
HIV dynamics are few, model projections provide an additional source of information for policy-makers to identify data collection priorities and develop prevention programs. In this study, we aimed to estimate the distribution of new
HIV infections by mode of exposure and to identify populations who are disproportionately contributing to the total number of new infections in Sudan. Methods We applied the modes of transmission (MoT) mathematical model in
Sudan to estimate the distribution of new
HIV infections among the ۱۵-۴۹ age group for ۲۰۱۴, based on the main routes of exposure to HIV. Data for the MoT model were collected through a systematic review of peer-reviewed articles, grey literature, interviews with key participants and focus groups. We used the MoT uncertainty module to represent uncertainty in model projections and created one general model for the whole nation and ۵ sub-models for each region (Northern, Central, Eastern, Kurdufan, and Khartoum regions). We also examined how different service coverages could change
HIV incidence rates and distributions in Sudan. Results The model estimated that about ۶۰۰۰ new
HIV infections occurred in
Sudan in ۲۰۱۴ (۹۵% CI: ۴۶۵۱-۷۴۳۲). Men who had sex with men (MSM) (۳۰.۵۲%), female sex workers (FSW) (۱۶.۳۷%), and FSW’s clients accounted (۱۹.۴۳%) for most of the new
HIV cases. FSW accounted for the highest incidence rate in the Central, Kurdufan, and Khartoum regions; and FSW’s clients had the highest incidence rate in the Eastern and Northern regions. The annual incidence rate of
HIV in the total adult population was estimated at ۳۳۰ per ۱ ۰۰۰ ۰۰۰ populations. The incidence rate was at its highest in the Eastern region (۹۸۰ annual infections per ۱ ۰۰۰ ۰۰۰ populations). Conclusion Although the national
HIV incidence rate estimate was relatively low compared to that observed in some sub-Saharan African countries with generalized epidemics, a more severe epidemic existed within certain regions and key populations.
HIV burden was mostly concentrated among MSM, FSW, and FSW’s clients both nationally and regionally. Thus, the authorities should pay more attention to key populations and Eastern and Northern regions when developing prevention programs. The findings of this study can improve
HIV prevention programs in Sudan.