Development of Iran's Electricity Transmission Capacity, Based on Forecasting the Demand Trend Using the System Dynamics Approach
Publish place: Journal of Systems Thinking in Practice، Vol: 3، Issue: 3
Publish Year: 1403
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: English
View: 20
This Paper With 28 Page And PDF Format Ready To Download
- Certificate
- من نویسنده این مقاله هستم
استخراج به نرم افزارهای پژوهشی:
شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_JSTINP-3-3_005
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 3 مهر 1403
Abstract:
This research models and simulates the development of transmission capacity considering electricity supply and demand dynamics. After presenting a causal loop diagram and designing a stock and flow diagram, the model's validity is confirmed using validation methods for system dynamics models. The analysis then proceeds to scenarios for the total electricity demand in Iran. Firstly, the country's electricity demand structure is broken into industrial, household, agricultural, and other sectors. By studying consumption trends in each sector, linear and nonlinear regression are used to predict total electricity demand. Next, three scenarios - optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic - are defined in terms of electricity demand, and the required transmission capacity is calculated and designed for ۴۰۰, ۲۳۰, ۱۳۲, and ۶۳-۶۶ kilovolt substations to cover and meet future electricity demand over twenty years. The research findings over a ۲۰-year horizon indicate that in the moderate scenario, where electricity demand increases by ۹۰ percent, the transmission capacity needs to increase by ۱۰۶ percent to meet the demand. In the optimistic scenario, where electricity demand increases by ۷۱ percent, the transmission capacity needs to increase by ۸۵ percent. In the pessimistic scenario, where electricity demand increases by ۱۱۰ percent, the transmission capacity needs to increase by ۱۲۶ percent.
Keywords:
System dynamics , Power transmission capacity , Expected power demand , Power transmission capacity development
Authors
Mohammad Taghi Farahnak
Department of Industrial Management, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Mohammad Ali Afshar Kazemi
Department of Industrial Management, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Ali Mohaghar
Department of Industrial management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Mohammad Ali Keramati
Department of Industrial Management, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
مراجع و منابع این Paper:
لیست زیر مراجع و منابع استفاده شده در این Paper را نمایش می دهد. این مراجع به صورت کاملا ماشینی و بر اساس هوش مصنوعی استخراج شده اند و لذا ممکن است دارای اشکالاتی باشند که به مرور زمان دقت استخراج این محتوا افزایش می یابد. مراجعی که مقالات مربوط به آنها در سیویلیکا نمایه شده و پیدا شده اند، به خود Paper لینک شده اند :