Predicting the Potential Distribution of Centaurea balsamita Lam. in the world in current conditions and future climate change

Aim:An attempt was made to understand the influence of climate change on thefuture potential distribution of Centaurea balsamita In the world. Centaurea balsamita is an annual plant from thesunflower family (Asteraceae) that invades fallow and slope lands worldwide. Climate change has caused extreme weather events and has had widespread impacts on the global ecosystem, including thedistribution of plant species.The CLIMEX software is used globally for analyzing potential distributions of species. Material and methods:The experiments were conducted in Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province.In the present study,CLIMEX software was used to study thepotential distribution of this plant in the world at present and future climate conditions.CLIMEX software requires five climate variables, including average, maximum, and minimum monthly temperature, precipitation and relative humidity at 9 Am and 3 Pm.These data were obtained from various sources such as "CRU TS v. 4.03" and used for the model predictions. Following the data collection, the values were adjusted and incorporated into the CLIMEX Modelling software.Using the literature data, we collected information onThe biology and ecology of Centaurea balsamita relevant for modeling the distribution of this species in Iran and worldwide underCurrent and future climatic conditions.Findings:Our results revealed that in current conditions, Europe, Asia, and North America are suitable locations for this invasive weed dispersal, and most parts of Europe have optimal conditions (20≤ EI) for dispersal of C. balsamita. It is likely that the suitable C. balsamita habitat area will be wider in some parts of the world such as Asia, America, and Europe under future climatic

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Centaurea balsamita Lam. in the world in current conditions and future climate change Keywords:

CLIMEX , Ecoclimatic Index , invasive plant , weed