Modeling the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Tetrataenium lasiopetalum (Apiaceae) in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran

Medicinal plants are crucial sources of bioactive compounds and serve as essential medicines for many people worldwide. Many species quickly disappear despite their growing popularity, and climate change worsens this issue. This study used the MaxEnt model to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of Tetrataenium lasiopetalum in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. The CCSM4 general circulation model and two climate scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, for the 2050s and 2070s, were applied to predict the potential effects of climate on the species' distribution. According to the research findings, the model performed excellently in terms of prediction accuracy (AUC ≥ 0.9). The key environmental variables affecting species distribution were pH (59/1%), soil organic carbon (10/4%), slope (5/8%), sand (4/4%), altitude (4%), and precipitation of wettest month (Bio13) (4%). The MaxEnt model predicts that fewer than ten percent of potential suitable habitats of this species are located within environmental protection areas. The projected distribution of the species is expected to increase in the 2050s and decrease in the 2070s due to climate change. This study is the first to use a species distribution modeling approach to predict suitable habitats for T. lasiopetalum. The results offer valuable insights into the protection, management, and future research efforts needed to preserve this valuable species in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province.

Modeling the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Tetrataenium lasiopetalum (Apiaceae) in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran Keywords:

Apiaceae , conservation , global warming , Medicinal plants , Migration , species distribution modeling