Scenario Writing for Sports Activities: A Sustainable Development Approach Using MicMac Software (A Case Study of Tehran, Iran)

Background: Today, sport is recognized as one of the main tools to achieve sustainable development goals. Sustainability guarantees a quality of life. The present study aimed to write a scenario for sports activities in Tehran, Iran, with a focus on a sustainable development approach. Methods: This mixed methods research was conducted based on Voros’s Generic Foresight Process Framework. After theoretical saturation of variables and obtaining a ۹۸% approval rate from experts, a questionnaire was administered. The collected data were subsequently analyzed using MicMac software. The key driving forces identified were then integrated into Scenario Wizard ۴ software to design sports scenarios aligned with the realization of sustainable development goals. Results: The results revealed that the number of no-impact relationships was the highest among the analyzed relationships, with ۱۱۶ out of ۲۰۸ cases categorized as such. This was followed by high-impact relationships (n = ۶۱) and low-impact relationships (n = ۵۵). Four variables "Investment in Sports", "Community Income Level", "Government Financial Support" and "Education and Promotion of Sports Culture" had the most susceptibility and effectiveness in the studied system. The selected drivers were classified based on two dimensions: optimistic and pessimistic. Conclusion: According to the dimensions of the selected drivers, the scenario writing for sports activities was characterized by internal inconsistency, finally resulting in the identification of only two scenarios considered compatible.

Keywords:

Scenario writing , Sustainable development , Sports activities , MicMac software , Tehran