Estimating drinking water supply in Hamedan city in the next ۲۵ years under the influence of climate change using LARS-WG and SWAT models

Climate change poses major risks to Hamedan's drinking water supply, which depends on the Ekbatan Dam, Talvar Dam, and groundwater. Groundwater use is already declining, while the Ekbatan Dam-the main source shows high variability, making future projections essential. To assess this, researchers compared historical climate data with models and identified ACCESS-ESM۱-۵ as the best fit. Using the LARS-WG model, future climate projections were generated and applied in the SWAT hydrological model to estimate runoff into Ekbatan Dam under three scenarios: SSP۱ (optimistic), SSP۲ (average), and SSP۵ (pessimistic). Results show annual runoff of ۹۲.۴۷ mm (SSP۱), ۱۰۳.۹۴ mm (SSP۲), and ۹۴.۳۲ mm (SSP۵), producing ۱۹.۸, ۲۲.۶, and ۲۰.۵۱ million cubic meters of water per month, respectively. These projections highlight significant variability but provide a valuable basis for planners to design sustainable strategies to secure Hamedan's future water supply under uncertain climate conditions.

Keywords:

Hamedan , Water Supply , Climate Change , SWAT-LARSWG