Evaluation and Prioritization of Resilience Strategies in the International Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Under Geopolitical Shocks: An Integrated Fuzzy-AHP and Fuzzy-TOPSIS Framework

The international pharmaceutical supply chain is highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, including international sanctions, armed conflicts, and disruptions to critical transit routes. Such disruptions can result in medicine shortages and restricted access to essential pharmaceuticals, thereby posing a serious threat to global health security. Addressing the critical need for evaluating and prioritizing resilience strategies, this study investigates how the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP) and the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy-TOPSIS) can be integrated to systematically identify and rank effective resilience strategies under the uncertainty inherent in expert judgments.This study adopted a quantitative research design based on a cross-sectional survey approach. The research sample consisted of ۴۲ industry experts selected through purposive sampling. Data were collected using structured online questionnaires incorporating fuzzy linguistic scales. The analysis was conducted using MATLAB and Microsoft Excel, where Fuzzy-AHP was employed to determine the relative weights of the evaluation criteria and Fuzzy-TOPSIS was applied to prioritize the proposed resilience strategies. Furthermore, the theoretical framework of the study was developed based on Systems Theory and the Dynamic Capabilities Theory.The findings revealed that supplier diversification was identified as the highest-priority resilience strategy, achieving a closeness coefficient of ۰.۸۱۲. It was followed by digital integration of the supply chain with a coefficient of ۰.۷۶۵, and collaborative partnerships with a coefficient of ۰.۶۸۹. Among the evaluation criteria, robustness (weight = ۰.۲۸) and agility (weight = ۰.۲۲) emerged as the most influential factors. In addition, the sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability and robustness of the obtained ranking results.The findings demonstrate that the proposed integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making framework provides an effective, reliable, and practical approach for prioritizing resilience strategies aimed at enhancing the resilience of the pharmaceutical supply chain. The proposed framework offers valuable managerial and policy implications for mitigating geopolitical risks, strengthening global health security, and supporting the development of sustainable supply chain redesign policies in increasingly volatile and uncertain environments.

Keywords:

Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Resilience , Geopolitical Shocks , Fuzzy-AHP , Fuzzy-TOPSIS , Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) , Global Health Security.