System Dynamics Approach for Quantitative Risk Allocation
Publish place: International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Research، Vol: 24، Issue: 3
Publish Year: 1392
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: English
View: 680
This Paper With 10 Page And PDF Format Ready To Download
- Certificate
- من نویسنده این مقاله هستم
استخراج به نرم افزارهای پژوهشی:
شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_IJIEPR-24-3_008
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 7 شهریور 1393
Abstract:
Allocation of construction risks between clients and their contractors has a significant impact on the total construction costs. This paper presents a system dynamics (SD)-based approach for quantitative risk allocation. Using the proposed SD based approach, all the factors affecting the risk allocation process are modeled. The contractor’s defensive strategies against the one-sided risk allocation are simulated using governing feedback loops. The full-impact of different risk allocation strategies may efficiently be modeled, simulated and quantified in terms of time and cost by the proposed object-oriented simulation methodology. The project cost is simulated at different percentages of risk allocation and the optimum percentage of risk allocation is determined as a point in which the project cost is minimized. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, it has been implemented in a pipe-line project. The optimal risk allocation strategy is determined for the inflation risk as one of the most important identified risks.
Keywords:
Authors
F. Nasirzadeh
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran
M. Khanzadi
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
M. Rezaie
M.Sc. Student, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran,