A Comparative Study of the Forecast Accuracy of Fuzzy and Time-Series Models

Crude oil, as a political-economic product, plays a significant role in the world economy. Almost, all artifacts of human being are dependent on it in some processes from production to distribution from energy consumption to transportation. Proper policymaking of crude oil price based on scientific principles could provide the ground for economic growth. This paper deals with oil price forecast using fuzzy AR model. The results indicated that the accuracy of fuzzy AR method is considerably higher than ARMA method. Thus, it is recommended to use fuzzy AR method for increasing the reliability of precise forecast.

Keywords:

Fuzzy AR , ARMA , Forecast , Brent oil price