Regional Estimates of the Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence due to Female Breast cancer in Isfahan.

Background: Accurate statistics on the cancer burden are essential, both for purposes of research and for defining setting priorities in healthcare management. So that in vast countries with partially registration coverage, such as Iran, that is more useful. This paper estimates incidence, prevalence and mortality time trend of breast cancer over the period 2001-2010 and to provide short-range projections to 2015 in Isfahan.Patients and Methods: Estimates were derived by applying the mortality-incidence analysis method, a back-calculation approach to estimate and projection incidence, prevalence and mortality of chronic degenerative disease, starting from knowledge of mortality and relative survival information.Results: Breast cancer mortality, incidence and prevalence rates in Isfahan show an increasing trend in the period 2001-2015. The annual mortality percentage changes were estimated to have increased by 12% (an increase from 2.83 to 15.58 per 100000 PY) and annual incidence percentage change increased by 17% (an increase from 10.7 to 112.7 per 100000 PY). It is estimated that the Isfahan would have faced to a total 9167 prevalent case by 2012 Conclusion: In this study, female s breast cancer displayed an increasing pattern for incidence and pre valence rate over the entire study period by 2015. The extensive rise in estimated breast cancer incidence during our study period is almost consistent with the up-to-date data from Isfahan population based cancer registry. So, it’s predicted that the health care system will be faced to the extraordinary burden of female’s breast cancer in the near future.

Keywords:

breast cancer , estimate , incidence , mortality , prevalence