LONG-TERM EARTHQUAKE FORECAST FOR IRAN

We present a model of earthquake forecasting in Iran to assess the long-term probabilities of future earthquakes with moderate and large magnitudes (M ≥ 5.5). The model estimates a coupled rate of magnitude, space and time for future seismicity using a spatial-temporal Poisson process. We applied the ISC bulletin for the selected region (latitude 25- 41° and longitude 43.5- 64°) in the period of 1970 to 2012. Our results show a meaningful correlation between anomalies of the forecasted seismicity map and the epicenters of target events occurred from 2013 to 2014. Based on the results, we have concluded that the anomalies of the forecasted map should be considered as high risk regions.

Keywords:

Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting , Adaptive Kernel , Iran