Does policy responses to Covid-۱۹ impede cereal trade in West Africa?

Supply and distribution of production for agriculture has experienced serious disruption due to travel restrictions both internationally and nationally during the period of covid-۱۹. We include here in particular seeds and fertilizers for commercial farms as well as raw ones for processors of agricultural products. Travel restrictions and the risks posed by the virus have also severely limited the availability of labor. The policy makers and the private sector to develop strategies, policies and programs for intra-African trade in agricultural commodities and the development of agricultural value chains that enable actors comprised of farmers, small and medium agribusinesses, women and youth for people to take advantage of the (ZLECAf) single market. The increase in the level of trade represents a paradigm shift that breaks with the current state of affairs and promises to be an important element of the collaborative work that must lead to strengthening the food security and nutrition of all Africans. African countries have pledged to remove ۹۰% tariffs and liberalize services on more than ۵,۰۰۰ types of products. It is estimated that the removal of tariffs in the transition phase could generate gains of up to $۱۶.۱ billion and raise its share of total intra-African merchandise trade to ۳۳% from just ۱۵% today. This paper investigates the effect of policy responses to covid-۱۹ on cereal trade flows in West Africa region using a gravity model of trade. Using the monthly trade data of ۱۸ countries of West Africa covering the period from January ۲۰۱۹ and December ۲۰۲۱. The results showed that cereal trade in West Africa induced by covid-۱۹ depends on government policy responses. In fact, the study showed that stringency had greater negative impact on the cereal trade. Thus, the governmental actions are negative and significant on West African economies. Household income would plummet as labour force participation falls. The poor would be disproportionately affected, as many are employed in agriculture and low-end services, where output would fall sharply.

Keywords:

cereal trade flows , Covid-۱۹ , gravity model , West Africa