Automatic Calibration of the Conceptual HEC-HMS Model and Parametric Uncertainty Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Model

Hydrological models comprehension is one of the basic steps in the optimal operation and management of water and flood control. Several parameters related to infiltration process, routing, and conversion of precipitation into runoff for estimation; On the other hand, estimating the parameters by different optimization methods has always been associated with errors. Therefore, uncertainty analysis is necessary. In the present study, the Monte Carlo-based algorithms in the HEC-HMS model were used to investigate the curve numbers' parametric uncertainty of the Kan watershed with a ۳۴.۷۸ sq km area in the North of Tehran province. The results showed that the model can be used in flood risk assessment and management by considering the uncertainty in peak flood assessment and considering geomorphological features as a reliability coefficient.

Keywords:

Runoff-precipitation model , calibration , parametric uncertainty , flood assessment