The Ultraviolet Index Forecast Using TUV Model over the Coasts of Persian Gulf and Oman Sea

Ultraviolet radiation has some beneficial effects such as making vitamin D and disinfecting. Predicting the ultraviolet radiation can be very beneficial to human health. In this study, the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible (TUV) model was used to predict the UltraViolet Index (UVI). This model requires the data of ozone column, albedo, and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) to forecast UVI. The Global Forecasting System (GFS) was used for the ozone column and albedo data, and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) was used for AOD data. In this study, ۱۰۲ case studies over coastal stations and islands of Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in the years ۲۰۱۹, ۲۰۲۰ and ۲۰۲۱ were selected. Due to the lack of access to the actual value of UVI, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) data are assumed as observational data. The GFS, WACCM and OMI data were extracted for the selected dates and interpolated at the desired points. Afterwards, the interpolated values with latitude, longitude and altitude of points were given as inputs to the TUV model and UVI were forecasted. The results showed in the warm months of the year, when the amount of UVI is higher than the cold months, the forecast error is higher. In addition, when the AOD value is high, the forecast error is high as well, but in general, the forecast is very accurate. In all selected case studies, ME, MAE, RMSE and R are -۰.۸۱, ۱.۰۷, ۱.۸۳ and ۰.۷۵, respectively, indicating the high accuracy of the UVI forecast .

Keywords:

TUV , UV index , Persian Gulf , Oman Sea