Predicting urban growth pattern using the Geomod approach

Urban growth pattern modeling is an important technique for describing the process of urban growth development in terms of quantity and location. In this study, the Geomod approach was used to urban growth pattern modeling in Gorgan area in northern Iran in the period of ۸۸۱۱-۰۲۰۲. At first, the remotely-sensed data of the years۸۸۱۱, ۸۸۸۱, and ۰۲۲۲ were used to produce land-use maps. Land-use maps were used to implement change detection process in the two time periods of ۸۸۱۱-۸۸۸۱ and ۸۸۸۱-۰۲۲۲. The results indicated an increase in urban areas during the whole research time period. In the next step, dependent and independent variables were extracted to perform urban growth pattern modeling. Also, LR was used to determine the most important factor in urban expansion. After preparing the suitability map, Geomod was run for the years of ۸۸۱۱– ۸۸۸۱ and ۸۸۸۱ – ۰۲۲۲. Also, the Geomod approach was used to predict the future condition of the area in the years of ۰۲۸۲ and ۰۲۰۲. The results revealed that urban area would increase in the future. Moreover, the variable of “distance to urban edge” is the most important factor in urban growth pattern in this region. According to the results, there is a need for well-planned measures to control land-use change, especially urban growth, in order to preserve the environment and the ecological balance of the area. Therefore, careful planning can control land-use change and also reduce the land-use change impacts in the future in this region.

Keywords:

Land-use change modeling , Geomod approach , Gorgan area , Iran