Validation of the MuLBSTA Scale in Predicting the Mortality Risk of SARS-CoV-2 in the Iranian Population; A pilot study

Background: MuLBSTA is a scale designed for easy clinical assessment of the mortality risk of viral pneumonia patients. Objectives: The overall purpose of conducting this research is to investigate the effectiveness of MuLBSTA in estimating the mortality risk of COVID-19 patients. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed on 99 COVID-19 patients from December 2020 to February 2021. The MuLBSTA scores of patients were calculated, and their survival and risk rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The ROC diagram was used for the logistic model assessment to determine the best mortality prediction cut-off point. Data were analyzed in SPSS version 21 at the 0.05 significance level. Results: Of the 99 monitored patients, 69 (69.69%) recovered, and 30 (30.31%) died during the study period. The mean MuLBSTA scores of patients who recovered and died were 10.51±3.99 and 16.53±3.02, respectively. A statistically significant positive relationship was found between MuLBSTA scores and mortality (p<0.001). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of MuLBSTA in predicting mortality during hospitalization was calculated to be 0.88 (95%CI=0.82-0.95, SE=1.55). Conclusion: MuLBSTA scores are highly correlated with the severity of COVID-19. Therefore, MuLBSTA can serve as a tool for rapid situation assessment and swift decision-making about the treatment approach and the allocation of hospital resources to COVID-19 patients.

Validation of the MuLBSTA Scale in Predicting the Mortality Risk of SARS-CoV-2 in the Iranian Population; A pilot study Keywords:

Clinical Decision Rules , SARS-CoV-2 , mortality , Viral Pneumonia