Predicting the health expenditures in Iran using TVP models

The healthcare sector is one of the main sectors of a country's economy which is considered as an infrastructure for the process of development, so most countries believe in special care for this sector. Due to this fact, in this study, the TVP-DMA model is used to identify the affective factors of healthcare expenditures in Iran's economy. Regarding the subject and purpose of the research, the appropriate method in this research is a regression-type correlation. In this study, seasonal data from (۱۹۹۱-۹۲) to (۲۰۱۵-۱۶) was used. The results of the research based on the output of TVP, DMS, and DMA models reflect the fact that the growth rate of liquidity ۳۰, the economic growth rate ۵۰, unemployment ۱۱, the exchange rate ۴۹, the financial development index ۶۶, oil revenues ۵۴, the misery index ۷, the deficit budget of ۸۴ periods out of ۱۰۴ periods which were under study, All have a significant effect on the factors affecting the healthcare expenditures. It can be stated that budget deficit, financial development index, oil revenues and economic growth are the highest and most important indicators for predicting healthcare expenditures in Iran.

Keywords:

health care expenditure , financial condition indicator , dynamic models , time variable parameter models