Examining the relationship between the decline in wheat crop yield rate and the temperature index: Moving towards temperature index insurance

Production of agricultural products faces various risks, including weather fluctuations such as temperature, rainfall, wind, and storms. Therefore, agricultural crop insurance holds great importance in managing risks for agricultural units. However, traditional insurance faces challenges such as asymmetric information, moral hazard, and implementation costs. In the present study, while examining the relationship between the decline rate of wheat yield and temperature index in Tabriz County, the proposal for temperature index insurance for rain-fed and irrigated wheat crops is introduced. For calculating the high-temperature damage index, days with a maximum daily temperature of ۳۲ degrees Celsius and an average daily temperature of ۲۷ degrees Celsius were considered. To calculate the low-temperature damage index, the critical temperature of ۱۰ degrees below freezing point was selected. The results of the regression analysis indicated that the low-temperature damage index has a significant effect on reducing the crop yield. Finally, it is suggested that the Agricultural Product Insurance Fund prioritize the implementation of temperature index insurance in its programs.

Keywords:

Temperature Damage Index , Temperature Index Insurance , Wheat , Yield DeclineRate