Estimation Overhead Lines Failure Rate Based On Hierarchical Bayesian Poisson Regression

Extracting a precise data-driven failure rate of distribution components is a very prominent issue in asset management decision-making process, but lack of appropriate data would encounter the failure rate estimation of components with difficulties. In this paper in order to overcome the deficiency of outage data, a new method is proposed for failure rate estimation of overhead lines. This method is modeled by hierarchical Bayesianapproach. Then its functionality is investigated using deviance information criterion (DIC) and real failure data of 34 distribution feeders in Alborz province power distribution company

Keywords:

Constant failure rate , Hierarchal Bayesian Poisson regression