Comparison of impact of climate change on building energy-saving design for two different climates; Metropolitans of Moscow and Tehran

In the present study, in order to monitor and project climate change impacts on model of the bioclimatic design, a comparative study was conducted between the Middle East and Eurasia as two different climates. This paper used the basic data from ۱۹۹۰ to ۲۰۱۰, and the CMIP۵ climate models have been used to project the climate data (radiation, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) from the outputs of CanEMS۲ model, which its values have been dynamically downscaled using the RegCM۴.۶ climate model for the period from ۲۰۲۰ to ۲۰۴۹. In this study, the scenario RCP۴.۵ was used. The results of this study showed that the average annual temperature for the period ۲۰۲۰–۲۰۴۹ as compared with the present decade can be increased ۳.۲۷ °C and ۴.۷۱ °C for Tehran and Moscow, respectively. On the other hand, relative humidity changes in future compared to base period can be decreased ۴% for Tehran and increased ۱۰.۵% for Moscow. The total assessment on climate change in the coming decades can lead to a change in bioclimatic design strategies of buildings for both study areas. Generally, with regard to future climate change for both study areas, the percentage of days needed to provide bioclimatic design strategies in the heating sector can be reduced; however, the need for providing cooling strategies for Tehran can significantly be increased. Although these conditions for Moscow can not change significantly, dehumidification strategies in Moscow can be more significant than of those in Tehran for the coming period.

Keywords:

Climate scenario , Building modeling , Bioclimatic design strategies , Metropolitan of Tehran and Moscow , Climate adaptation