Price Transmission Analysis in Iran Fluid Milk Market

This study investigates the price transmission in the Iranian fluid milk market. We applied a Markov-switching vector error correction model on the monthly price data from March ۲۰۰۳ to December ۲۰۱۵ to allow for multiple regime shifts in the relationship between farm and retail prices. According to Granger Causality Test, there is one side causality relation from producer’s price to consumer’s price. Due to the existence of positive price asymmetry in farm-retail price transmission, the retail prices would incline more quickly in response to increases in farm price than to its decreases, implying serious welfare losses to the consumers. Main results show existence of a positive price asymmetry in the market. In the long run, price transmission is perfect, while in the short run, price adjustment between two market levels is asymmetric. On the other hand, retailers benefit from any shock that affects supply or demand conditions.

Keywords:

Farm and retail prices , Markov-switching model , Price asymmetry.