Assessment of the Mathematical Model for Investigating Covid-۱۹ Peak as A Global Epidemic in Iran

In this paper, we investigate the COVID-۱۹ pandemic in Iran from a mathematical modeling perspective. By improving the well-known susceptible infected recovered (SIR) family of compartmental models and adding unreported cases obtain a local model for Iran. Since we only want infected cases, we have refused to add other classes which there are can be. we estimate the infected case by using the reported data of the first period of the outbreak and will apply the results to data of the provinces of Ardabil and Guilan which were available to us as well as published data from Iran. We show that, if some of the indexes are constant, the future infectious reported cases are predictable. Also, we show a good agreement between the reported data and the estimations given by the proposed model. We further demonstrate the importance of choosing this proposed model used to by finding the basic reproductive number. Also, we will estimate the probability distribution for the death rate. Our study can help the decision-making of public health.

Keywords:

Corona-virus pandemic globally , Mathematical modeling , SIRU-model , Parameter identification , Statistical methods , Akaike information criterion.