Futures Studies of Food Tourism based on Structural Analysis

The purpose of this work is to use structural analysis to create believable scenarios of Iranian food tourism. In the present study, to formulate plausible scenarios, first by reviewing the literature and interviewing experts, ۳۷ factors affecting food tourism were extracted. The variables affecting the future of food tourism, directly and indirectly, were calculated using a questionnaire and analysis by MICMAC software. Finally, considering the two most critical factors called food festivals and sanctions/international relations, plausible scenarios for the future of Iranian food tourism were developed. Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include Golden Scenario, Limited Scenario, Neglected Scenario and Chaotic Scenario. In Golden scenario, which depicts the ideal conditions, as many suitable food festivals as possible are being held in a country, and sanctions are not imposed. According to Limited Scenario, holding more and better food festivals is on the officials’ agenda, but on the other hand, the country is under sanctions and pressure. In Neglected Scenario, holding festivals is the same as in the past, and the country is not sanctioned. In Chaotic Scenario, depicting the worst-case scenario, the festival process is the same as in the past and has not been developed quantitatively and qualitatively. Also, the country is in a problematic situation of sanctions. Creating Credible The industry's major players and beneficiaries greatly benefit from Iranian food tourism scenarios, which enable them to provide flexible preparation-based programmers in response to shifting circumstances. The techniques and factors that influence the growth of the business will be known to the participants and recipients of food tourism, and this will open up a multitude of opportunities for the players involved.

Keywords:

Food Tourism , Scenario Planning , Futures Studies , Iran