The risk factors for occurrence cardiovascular disease: A population-based cohort study in theSouth of Iran

Introduction: The cardiovascular diseases are the main reason of mortality in the world. This study wasconducted with the aim of estimating the incidence rate and identifying the risk factors of these diseases.Methods: This is a prospective cohort study that was performed on ۹۴۴۲ individuals aged ۴۰-۷۰ years inKharameh, a city in the South of Iran, in ۲۰۱۵-۲۰۲۲. participants were followed up for ۴ years. The demographicinformation, biological parameters, behavioral habits, and history of some diseases were examined. In the first,the density incidence of cardiovascular disease was calculated. The log-rank test was calculated for evaluationthe cardiovascular incidence difference between male and female. Then were performed simple and multipleFirth’s Cox regression to identify the predictors of cardiovascular disease.Results: The mean age of the participants was ۵۱.۴±۸.۰۴ years, and the density incidence was calculated at ۱.۹cases per ۱۰۰۰۰۰ person-day. The log-rank test showed that male had a higher risk of cardiovascular diseasethan female. The result of Chi-square test showed a statistically significant difference between the incidence ofcardiovascular diseases in different age groups, education levels, hypertension, and diabetes in male and female.Based on the results of multiple Firth’s penalized Cox regression, Chronic kidney disease was found to be thestrongest risk factor for cardiovascular disease (HR=۳.۵۹, ۹۵% CI, ۱.۱۹ to ۸.۱۳). The risk of cardiovasculardisease in male was ۲ (HR=۲, ۹۵% CI, ۱.۵۳ to ۲.۷۹) times higher than in female. It was ۲.۲۶ times higher inpeople with diabetes (HR=۲.۲۶, ۹۵% CI, ۱.۷۶ to ۲.۸۸),۱.۶۴ times higher in hypertensive people (HR=۱.۶۴, ۹۵%CI, ۱.۲۹ to ۲.۰۸), and ۱.۵۹(HR=۱.۵۹, ۹۵% CI, ۱.۰۹ to ۲.۲۷) times higher in alcoholics.Conclusion: History of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, hypertension, and consumption of alcohol were amongthe risk factors, so if they were removed, the incidence of cardiovascular disease could reduce. So, it is necessaryto develop strategies for appropriate interventions to reduce these risk factors with an emphasis on chronickidney patients.

Keywords:

Risk factors , Incidence , cardiovascular , cohort