Multiscale Assessment of Industrial Atmospheric Emissions, Urban Air Quality Degradation, and Population-Level Health Exposure Using AERMOD Simulation: A Case Study of the South Pars Energy Zone

Continuous atmospheric releases from large-scale industrial complexes constitute a persistent driver of air quality degradation and population exposure in adjacent urban environments. Accurate characterization of pollutant transport, dispersion behavior, and spatial concentration gradients is therefore essential for advanced environmental health assessment and evidence-based regulatory decision-making. This study investigates atmospheric dispersion and ground-level concentration fields of carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide within residential receptor zones surrounding the South Pars Energy Zone in southern Iran. Emission inventories were developed using detailed operational and geometric characteristics of ninety elevated stacks and twenty-six flaring sources, integrated within the AERMOD regulatory dispersion modeling framework under site-specific meteorological and surface conditions. Model-derived concentration fields were evaluated through comparison with ambient measurements collected at forty-five strategically distributed locations to ensure robustness of exposure representation. Results demonstrate pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity and pollutant-specific behavior across multiple averaging periods relevant to human exposure. Maximum concentrations reached ۲۴۲۸ and ۴۱۸ ug/m۳ for one-hour and eight-hour carbon monoxide exposure, respectively. Annual and short-term nitrogen dioxide levels attained peak values of ۲۱۰ and ۶۲ ug/m۳, exceeding applicable ambient air quality thresholds. In contrast, sulfur dioxide concentrations remained within regulatory limits, supporting source–receptor and risk interpretation.

Keywords:

Industrial air emissions , AERMOD simulation , Urban air quality , Atmospheric dispersion modeling , Population health exposure