A Systematic Framework for Assessing Activity Reliability and Project Risk under Uncertainty: A Project Control Perspective

Projects are increasingly executed in environments characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and dynamic stakeholder requirements. Traditional project control approaches rely heavily on schedule and cost performance indicators; however, they often overlook the reliability of project activities as a leading indicator of future project performance. Activity reliability refers to the probability that a project activity will be completed within predefined scope, time, cost, and quality requirements. This study proposes a systematic decision-making framework that integrates activity reliability assessment with project risk analysis under uncertainty conditions. The framework extends traditional reliability concepts from engineering systems to project management systems by considering project activities as interconnected components of a complex socio-technical system. In the proposed approach, reliability estimates are used as inputs for risk evaluation, allowing project managers to assess both the likelihood of activity disruption and the consequences of schedule delays, cost overruns, and performance degradation. The model supports project control decisions through a structured process involving data collection, activity reliability assessment, risk classification, scenario development, and managerial response selection. Four risk treatment strategies, including risk acceptance, reduction, avoidance, and transfer, are incorporated into the framework. The proposed methodology provides project managers with a practical mechanism for prioritizing control actions in uncertain environments and improving project resilience.

Keywords:

Project Control , Activity Reliability , Project Risk Management , Uncertainty , Schedule Performance , Decision-Making