Forecasting Change Of Iran's Trading Partners With An Emphasis On Continuing Sanctions In Horizon Of Fifth Iranian Development Plan

Expanding non-oil exports for diversifying export earnings is a common policy in developing countries with monoculture economics. However, in recent years, sanctions as the major obstacle of achieving the objectives lead to change of trading partners through affecting domestic and foreign policies. Therefore, the uncertainty of future trading partners due to the uncertain conditions of sanction highlights the necessity of forecasting the change trends of Iran's trading partners. This paper aimed to review and forecast share changing of Iran's major trading partners from 1996 until the end of the fifth development plans. Thus, first, the share of trading partners from agricultural export products as the part of non-oil exports during 1996-2012 was investigated using the data on non-oil exports of Iran Customs Administration. Then, the share of Iran's trading partners was forecasted during 2013-2015 by considering sanctions and using econometric techniques. Results of the forecasts showed that, in the non-sanction conditions, the share of western countries of Iran's non-oil exports would increase and, with continuing sanctions, exports would be limited to the neighbouring countries.

Keywords:

Forecasting , Trading Partners , Non-oil Exports , Iran's Fifth Development Plan