The Analysis of Effective Factors on Crude Oil Price: Fuzzy Tanaka Approach

The significance of the effect of oil price in various economic sectors has always been considered by the researchers for the purpose of modeling and forecasting the price fluctuations. Forecast is always used as guidelines for public and private sectors' policies since planning is almost impossible without forecast. In other words, the proper prediction of future severely influences the efficiency of planning. In this paper, concerning data mining and clustering method, significant and strongly effective variables on oil price have been used including the approved oil reservoirs of OECD member countries, OPEC oil production, the capacity of oil refineries of OECD member countries, gold price and economic growth of countries of group 7. Then, using fussy regression model, oil price forecast has been performed for coming years. The obtained results show that the fuzzy coefficient of intercept, fuzzy coefficient of OECD oil reservoir and fuzzy coefficient of OPEC oil production are negative and the coefficients of the capacity of oil refineries of OECD member countries, gold price and economic growth of G7 are all positives and have direct relation with increased oil price

Keywords:

Fuzzy regression , Fuzzy Tanaka method , Forecast , Oil price