The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate in Iran Economy: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach
Publish place: اولین کنفرانس ملی مدیریت و اقتصاد جهانی
Publish Year: 1395
نوع سند: مقاله کنفرانسی
زبان: English
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
MWECONF01_022
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 13 شهریور 1396
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to test the monetary model of exchange rate in Iran, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach over the period 2000 to 2012, using Eviews software. The estimation results show that there is long run relationship among variables of the monetary model of exchange rate for Iran. That is, the estimated coefficients of the money supply, income and interest rate differentials support the monetary exchange rate model. As well, the stability test of CUSUM shows that there exists a significant and stable monetary model of exchange rate determination for Iran.Therefore, this study recommends that market participants in the foreign exchange market may monitor and forecast future exchange rate movements using the money supplies, incomes and interest rates variables.
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Authors
Abdolmajid Ahangari
Ph.D in Economics and Associate Professor in Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran
Ahmad Chehreghani
Ph.D Student in Economics at Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran