Possible scenarios of Iran's response to Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran

Possible scenarios of Iran's response to Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran

Scenario and analysis: Dr. Nouradin Jafari Hezarany

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Dr.n.jafary@gmail.com


The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political office of Hamas, in Tehran on July 31, 2024, is an important and influential incident in the Middle East region. This incident not only affects the relations between Iran and Israel, but it can also have wide-ranging effects on regional and international policies. In this note, we will examine the possible scenarios of Iran's response to this assassination and analyze the different aspects of each scenario.

Possible scenarios

1. Direct military response
Iran may decide to respond militarily to this incident. This response could include missile strikes on Israeli targets, widespread cyber attacks, or limited military operations in the region.

Details and analysis
- **Missile attacks:** Iran can attack strategic targets in Israel using ballistic and cruise missiles. These attacks could include military bases, nuclear facilities, and command centers.
- **Cyber ​​attacks:** Iran can carry out extensive cyber attacks against Israel's critical infrastructure, such as power grids, financial systems, and communications.
**Limited military operations:** Iran can carry out limited and targeted military operations in border areas or through its proxy forces in Lebanon and Syria.

Advantages:
- Demonstrating Iran's defense power and capability
- Increasing internal support and strengthening the national spirit
- Send a strong message to regional enemies

Disadvantages:
- Increasing tensions and the possibility of a wider war
- More sanctions from the international community
- Possibility of human casualties and financial losses

2. Diplomatic and legal response
Iran can seek to condemn this incident and put pressure on Israel through diplomacy and using international organizations such as the United Nations. Also, he can pursue the incident through international courts.

Details and analysis
**International Condemnation:** Iran can, with the cooperation of its allied countries, pass resolutions in the United Nations that condemn this incident and demand an international investigation.
- **Legal Pursuit:** Iran can pursue this incident through international courts such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and accuse Israel of violating international law.

Advantages:
- Reducing tensions and preventing war
- Increasing international support and giving legitimacy to Iran's positions
- The possibility of imposing new international sanctions against Israel

Disadvantages:
- It may not reach a tangible result
- Time consuming diplomatic and legal process
- The possibility of non-cooperation of some countries


3. Strengthening support for resistance groups
Iran can increase its support for resistance groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah and put pressure on Israel through these groups. This support can include financing, weapons, and training.

Details and analysis
- **Funding:** Iran can allocate more funds to resistance groups to increase their military and operational capabilities.
- **Weapons:** Iran can send more advanced weapons to resistance groups, including long-range missiles, armed drones, and electronic warfare equipment.
- **Training:** Iran can hold more training and exercise programs for resistance forces to improve their military and tactical capabilities.

Advantages:
- Increasing pressure on Israel without direct conflict
- Strengthening relations with resistance groups and increasing regional influence
- The possibility of creating new fronts against Israel

Disadvantages:
- Increasing tensions in the region and the possibility of Israel's military response
- The possibility of increased violence and human casualties in conflict areas
- More sanctions from Western countries

4. Combined answer
Iran can use a combination of military, diplomatic, and support methods for resistance groups. This approach could include limited military strikes, legal and diplomatic follow-up, and increased support for resistance groups.

Details and analysis
**Limited Military Attacks:** Iran can carry out limited attacks on Israel's strategic targets to send a strong message without leading to a full-scale war.
**Legal and Diplomatic Pursuit:** Iran can seek condemnation of Israel through international organizations and legal courts at the same time as military attacks.
- **Increasing support for resistance groups:** Iran can increase its support for resistance groups to put more pressure on Israel.

Advantages:
- Flexibility and the ability to respond to different situations
- Increasing pressure on Israel from several fronts
- The possibility of achieving more tangible results

Disadvantages:
- Complexity and the need for high coordination
- The possibility of increasing tensions and unpredictable reactions
- High costs and the need for extensive resources

Conclusion
Each of these scenarios has its own advantages and disadvantages, and the choice of each one depends on Iran's overall strategy and regional and international conditions. Iran must choose the best answer carefully and considering all aspects. This incident can have long-term effects on international relations and regional policies and requires careful and strategic decisions.