Prediction logit model for severity of rural road accidents the case study in ILAM province

With increasing the length and number of rural roads network and the increasing of car ownership in the country s villages, unfortunately the number of accidents has increased in these ways. In this study, the first, about the effecting factors of severity roads crashes are discussed. Then by using statistical of rural roads accident for ILAM province (ILAM one province of IRAN) from police’s reports (2009-2012), Characteristics of geometric design (radius of curvatures, width of roads, width of the shoulder width and...) from GIS software (administration of road and transportation ILAM province), logit model for severity crashes was designed for these roads. The results show that the accident day, driver s education, conditional of pavement road, type of geometric design (curvature or straight), driver s age were significant impact on the severity of accidents. The most important parameter affecting the severity crash was crashes day, because of these roads had more traffic in holiday and young drivers ran faster.

Keywords:

rural roads , logit model , severity accidents