سطوح و روندهای طول دوره کاری و عوامل مؤثر بر آن در ایران

In the post-transition stage, reduced fertility gradually reduces the rate of population growth at working age; reducing or even stabilizing the length of a working period can be undesirable for economies. Therefore, identifying the determinants of entry to and exit of labor market and the length of the working period can help keep economies in transition to the old economy away from this undesirable situation. Therefore, the aim of this study is to provide a picture of the conditions and situation of labor entry to and exit from the market and to identify the main determinants of the average length of work in Iran. For this purpose, the age of entry to/ exit from the labor market was calculated using cross-sectional data from the 1976 to 2016 censuses. In addition, the average annual wage, education level, pension, life expectancy and number of children for the period 1986-2016 were estimated using time series data and model estimation using ordinary least squares method. The results showed that the average age of education is the most important factor that has influenced the age of men entering the labor market and its delay. Also, the situation and conditions of the labor market are contrary to the direction of social-demographic changes and inconsistent with the economic benefits of demographic change.

Keywords:

تغییرات جمعیتی , سود جمعیتی دوم , طول دوره کاری , مشارکت اقتصادی , بازنشستگی