Background: The
Gail model has been widely used for estimation of absoluterisk of breast cancer development. The original model and most of the validationstudies have been performed among western populations and controversial resultshave been reported regarding the applicability of this model in Asian populations.Our aim was to investigate the performance of this model in Iranian women.Methods: In a cross-sectional study, a total of ۲۸۰ patients with breast cancerand ۲۸۰ participants with normal screening results were enrolled as case andcontrol groups, respectively. Risk factors used in the latest version of the Gailmodel were compared between the two study groups. Gail score was calculated byusing Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool and based on the cut-off point of ۱.۶۷,patients were categorized in order to assess model performance.Results: In total, ۵۶۰ patients with a mean age of ۴۳.۰۷±۸.۶۰ years wereenrolled. Comparison of different risk factors between the two groups revealedsignificant associations of patients’ age (P < ۰.۰۰۱), age at first pregnancy (P =۰.۰۲۲), previous history of breast biopsy (P < ۰.۰۰۱) and atypical hyperplasia (P =۰.۰۰۲) with risk of breast cancer. No association was found between age atmenarche (P = ۰.۱۱۵) or first-degree family history (P = ۰.۱۱۷) and increased risk.Considering the Gail score for ۵-year risk of breast cancer development, thedifference between the two groups failed to reach significance (P = ۰.۰۵۲). Thesensitivity and specificity of the model were ۱۳.۹% and ۹۴%, respectively.Conclusions: Based on the current findings, it can be suggested that employingthe current version of the
Gail model for breast cancer risk assessment willunderestimate the risk of cancer development in Iranian women.