Risk Assessment of Irrigation Networks with Application of Fuzzy Hierarchical Method and Selecting Appropriate Risk Management Scenario within Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approach

Irrigation network as the primary agricultural water conveyance and delivery due to their vastness are exposed to a variety of hazard affecting the operational performance of irrigation districts. Accordingly for the first time, the threatening hazards are identified base on a comprehensive structure and by a combination of probability, consequence, and vulnerability against identified threatening hazards risk is calculated. The model is an expert-oriented model and most of the imput date are in according to expert’s opinion, therefore due to uncertainty affecting the model, the developed model is based on fuzzy numbers. To improve the model accuracy and involve enough details the irrigation network is assessed base on a hierarchical structure In order to aggregate the calculated risk in the hierarchical framework, the Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting approach (FSAW) is employed. According to obtained risk assessment results and by determining the most efficient hazards, risk management policies are proposed in the form of six management scenarios. To prioritize managerial scenarios, two set of criteria are selected including quantitative criteria, consisted of cost of operation and risk reduction, and qualitative set compromise of social, operation time and easy operation criteria. The risk management scenarios are prioritized based on, two well-known multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods of a Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW).In differenct section of risk assessment and management pairwise comarision was applied to obtain the necessary weights. Risk assessment and management model were applied for Qazvin irrigation network as the case study According to the risk assessment results, the riskiest hazard is obtained from poor maintenance in main canal , seepage in main canal , unexpected event in intersection structures , drought in resevoir, vandalism in check structure . Also, employing the MCDM model in risk management section reveals that scenario numer 4 , ‘maintenance improvement’ has been ranked as the first scenario, respectively with the score values of 0.851 and 0.237 applying the SAW, and TOPSIS approaches and ‘secntrelize control’ and ‘local control’ are the next rank

Risk Assessment of Irrigation Networks with Application of Fuzzy Hierarchical Method and Selecting Appropriate Risk Management Scenario within Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approach Keywords:

hierarchcal risk assessment , multi-criteria decision making , irrigation network , risk management