Earthquake Hazard Studies in Central-Southern Europe

The methods used for the assessment of seismic hazard in Europe are mostly based on the statistical analysis of the space(-time) distributions of earthquakes and - to a minor extend - on the tectonic characteristics of the area under investigation. This fact is apparently due to the quantitative nature of earthquake parameters in comparison to available qualitative seismo-tecto-nic information. Furthermore, the acquisition of tectonic input parameters is much more complex and therefore time-consuming than the use of already available earthquake catalogues. Probabilistic hazard assessment has first been successfully applied in the early ۷۰'s in the USA (e.g. Cornell and Merz ۱۹۷۴, Algermissen and Perkins ۱۹۷۳). In central Europe compre-hensive probability maps have been published e.g. for W-Germany (Ahorner and Rosenbauer ۱۹۷۵), E-Germany (Gruenthal and Schenk ۱۹۸۳), Switzerland (Mueller and Mayer-Rosa ۱۹۸۰), and for Southern Italy in the European project (TERESA Working Group ۱۹۸۹). The epicenter map in Figure ۱ shows the seismic activity in Europe during the time period ۱۹۷۶ - ۱۹۹۰. For the area described here this activity ranges from low in Germany, intermediate in Switzerland, to high in central Italy. Many of the highly populated and industrialized areas are located in this region (e.g. Stuttgart, Basel, Zurich, Milano, Torino, Roma, Naples).