A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS OF IRAN

It is generally agreed that hazard estimates using conventional probabilistic models (models based almost exclusively on recorded seismicity data) are sensitive to the various parameters of the model. Results from a number of such studies for Iran clearly demonstrates this subjectivity of the conventional method. Due to the complex geotectonics of the region and the insufficient recorded seismicity in Iran, for a reliable seismic hazard prediction, one must incorporate the geologic and tectonic data into the predictive models. In a study which is presently in progress, a Bayesian model of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which is capable of incorporating the geotectonic data in the analysis, is developed and is being used for hazard estimation in Iran. In this article some issues and features of both approaches: Conventional and Bayesian, which were considered in our modeling are discussed